Homeowners, struggling to deal with sharp increases in their adjustable
mortgage payments, got hit with a record number of foreclosure notices
in the spring as the crisis in subprime lending intensified.
The problem was the most severe in the industrial Midwest and former
housing boom areas such as California and Florida, but economists
warned the situation will get worse in coming months as an estimated 2
million adjustable rate mortgages taken out with low introductory
interest rates reset to much higher rates. The crisis is most
severe in subprime mortgages, loans provided to borrowers with weak
credit, but it is now spreading to other types of mortgages, according
to a quarterly report released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers
Association. That report showed the number of homeowners who got
foreclosure notices in the April-June quarter hit an all-time high of
0.65 percent, up from 0.58 percent in the first three months of the
year. It marked the third consecutive quarter that a new record has
been set. The rising defaults in subprime mortgages have roiled
global financial markets in recent weeks, sending stock prices on a
roller-coaster ride as investors wonder which big bank or hedge fund
will be the next to report huge losses from subprime mortgages that
were bundled into securities and resold to investors. Both
President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to calm
fears late last week. Bernanke pledged the central bank would "act as
needed" to limit any adverse economic effects from the market turmoil. Bush
announced changes in the Federal Home Administration insured-loan
program to help combat the expected wave of foreclosures and also
answer attacks from Democrats that his administration has been slow to
respond to a growing crisis in mortgage foreclosures. Democrats
criticized Bush for not going far enough and vowed to push more
aggressive legislation through Congress, not only to help homeowners
facing foreclosure but also to attack predatory lending practices they
contend led to the crisis. Sen. Charles Schumer, the chairman of
the Joint Economic Committee, said the new mortgage delinquency numbers
should serve as a wake-up call to Congress and the administration that
urgent help is needed. Schumer is seeking $300 million in federal
support for nonprofit mortgage counseling groups which he said were
"the best defense against the coming storm of foreclosures throughout
the country." Private economists warned the worst slump in
housing in 16 years and the turbulence in financial markets from a
resulting serious credit squeeze could push the economy into a
recession as more borrowers fall into default, dumping even more homes
onto an already glutted market. "You have a lethal combination of
higher mortgage payments, lower house prices, a weaker job market and
more cautious lenders," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's
Economy.com. "That is a very noxious mix and it is the reason for this
surge in foreclosures." Zandi put the possibility of a recession
at 40 percent, almost four times the possibility he had estimated in
July, before the current credit crisis hit. He said defaults will
not peak until next year, reflecting a wave of introductory mortgages
that are just now resetting from low "teaser" rates. Those resets can
in many cases mean an extra $250 to $300 in higher monthly payments on
the typical $1,200 monthly mortgage. The MBA survey found that
the delinquency rate, which tracks the number of people who are behind
in their payments but have not yet entered the foreclosure process, was
also up sharply during the spring. It rose to 5.12 percent of all
loans, the highest level in five years and up from 4.84 percent in the
first quarter. The delinquency rate for subprime loans increased
more sharply to 14.82 percent — up from 13.77 percent — in the first
quarter. That marked the second-highest subprime delinquency rate on
record after a 14.96 percent rate in the spring of 2002. The
delinquency rate for prime loans, offered to borrowers with good credit
histories, also increased, but by a much smaller amount. It rose to
2.73 percent, up 2.58 percent in the first quarter. Doug Duncan,
the MBA's chief economist, said the worsening performance was the
result of two major factors — heavy job losses in the Midwest states of
Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, a region hard hit by heavy losses in the
auto industry and other manufacturing industries, and the collapse of
previously booming housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada and
Arizona. "The percent of mortgages in Ohio that are 90 days or
more past due or in foreclosure is still more than twice the national
average and 1 percent of all the mortgages in Michigan had foreclosure
actions started on them during the last quarter," Duncan said. He
said there were also significant problems in the neighboring states of
Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Pennsylvania. Analysts
said the problems in the formerly red-hot housing markets of
California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona reflected, in part, speculators
walking away from mortgages they can no longer afford. They had jumped
into the market during the boom, hoping to take advantage of rapidly
rising prices by quickly reselling. But now with the inventory of
unsold homes at record levels, many speculators are defaulting on their
mortgages. Those defaults are dumping more homes on an already glutted
market. "With so much supply out there to compete against,
borrowers who can't pay their mortgages are behind the eight-ball,"
said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research. "They can't
sell to get out from under their obligations. As a result, more end up
tumbling into foreclosure." During the five-year housing boom,
which ended last year, prices in the hottest areas surged as investors
bid up the price of homes hoping to quickly resell them for a profit.
Now with home sales falling, the inventory of unsold homes rising and
prices stagnant, some speculators are choosing to default on their
mortgages. Democrats on Wednesday blamed predatory lending
practices for a large part of the current problems and said they
planned to introduce bills aimed at halting such practices as
aggressive marketing of subprime loans to unqualified borrowers. Federal
and state banking regulators issued guidance this week encouraging
lending institutions to work with borrowers to restructure loans at
more favorable terms rather than foreclosing on the existing mortgages.
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